divendres, 8 de juny de 2012

Com se surt de l'euro?

Darrerament es parla (més) de la possible sortida de l'euro de Grècia o d'algun altre país...  I això com es fa?

La darrera carta de Niels C. Jensen de "The Absolute Return" fa un esbós, inspirat en part en el treball de Jonathan Tepper (mirar la pàgina 16):
1. The announcement will almost certainly come over a weekend with banks staying closed for at least a few days into the following week, allowing the government and the banks time to prepare for the new currency. 
2. Capital controls will be implemented instantly although they will be temporary in nature. (...)
3. The new currency should begin to trade as soon as the banks re-open for business so that the desired devaluation can take effect immediately. 
4. All interest payments on public debt will probably be suspended with immediate effect; however, the government would be wise not to make any declarations as to what haircut to expect on sovereign debt. Let the dust settle first but expect the IMF to be paid back in full. It is important to stay on good terms with your influential friends! 
5. Expect a nationalisation of all systemically important banks that require financial aid. Expect shareholders to be wiped out; bond holders should expect a significant haircut. The banks need sorting out once and for all. Remember, they are the root problem. 
6. Expect drastic labour market reforms to be introduced sooner rather than later. There is a window of public sympathy that the government must take advantage of, but the window will close again relatively quickly. The devaluation will improve the competitive advantage almost instantaneously, but the labour market reforms will secure that the advantages gained shall not be lost again over time. 
7. One last ‘wild card’ (and this is Willem Buiter’s idea – not mine): The government should consider an elimination of all physical money and move to electronic money only. This carries two significant benefits (...)
Pots llegir tota la carta, que és bastant interessant, clickant aquí.

Per cert, l'autor afirma (1) que no preveu a curt termini la sortida de cap país de l'euro, (2) que tindrà avantatges pel primer que ho faci (si ho fa de forma endreçada), i (3) que no serà tan caòtic com diu tothom: d'acord en (1), dubtes sobre (2), en desacord sobre (3): crec que seria/serà un "follón" brutal perquè, si acaba succeint, serà "desendreçat" (un país més que decidir marxar, acabarà marxant a la força; l'extrema esquerra grega de fet vol continuar a l'euro però, si guanyen i apliquen el seu programa, no podran fer-ho).

Què passarà? I jo que sé!  Això sí, ens esperen dies, setmanes i mesos moooooolt complicats.