dilluns, 21 de maig de 2012

Grècia i el matrimoni italià (o català)

Article interessant publicat al Financial Times per Edward Chancellor ("A Greek divorce may prove less costly").

Chancellor explica un informe de Morgan Stanley on presenta varis escenaris en la crisi actual. Un l'anomena “matrimonio a l’Italiana”:
The Italian marriage to which they refer started in the 1860s after Italian unification, when a single currency was introduced for the entire country. At that date, the north of Italy was more prosperous than the south. Incomes were around 20 per cent higher. The south, however, was no economic backwater. 
(...) The economic history of Italy over the subsequent 150 years has been one of persistent divergence between north and south. 
There is a huge body of literature on the economic failure of the Mezzogiorno, as the south of Italy is called. (...) But Italy’s currency union appears to have exacerbated the problems.
(...) But if Italy’s example is relevant, the northern eurozone members could find themselves paying indefinitely a large tribute to the south. Economic divergences within the single currency area could become entrenched. Viewed from this perspective, a clean-break divorce might bring more immediate pain but in the end prove less costly than an unhappy marriage Italian style.
És a dir, basat en l'experiència italiana de subvencionar de forma permanent unes regions pobres, millor deixar-ho córrer quan abans millor.  Alt cost a curt termini, no gaire a llarg.  Makes sense.

També li podrien dir "matrimoni espanyol" o "matrimoni català". Deixem de parlar de Grècia i parlem d'Espanya. Si els catalans poguéssim, no ens agradaria deixar de subvencionar Espanya? Doncs el mateix deuen pensar els alemanys quan pensen en Grècia... i en Espanya (per què haurien d'acceptar els eurobons per finançar els AVEs a enlloc i els dèficits ocults de les autonomies?).