dimecres, 28 d’abril de 2010

Roubini i Espanya

Via blog de Felix Salmon, el Professor Roubini ("Mr. Doom", un tipus curiós), ha dit respecte Espanya (quan estava comparant Grècia i Argentina), :

Of course, this being Nouriel, it goes downhill from there: if Greece is worse than Argentina, he says, then Spain is worse than Greece. Its housing bubble and bust has left the banking sector much weaker than Greece’s; its unemployment situation, especially with the under-30 crowd, is much worse than Greece’s; and the cost of any Spain bailout would be so much more enormous than the cost of a Greek bailout as to be almost unthinkable. The only thing that Spain has going for it is that it isn’t quite at the edge of the abyss yet; if it gets its political act together and implements tough fiscal and structural reforms now, it can save itself. But clearly no one saw that happening, given Spain’s political history over the past 20 years

Vaja, que segons ell no pinta bé a menys que es facin reformes estructurals (per ell l'avantatge d'Espanya respecte Grècia és que té més temps per actuar, no gaire, però més temps). No comparteixo la seva visió tan tan catastrofista, però sí que estic d'acord que cal disciplina fiscal i reformes estructurals... i que vistos els precedents polítics és molt difícil que això succeeixi.