dimecres, 6 de gener de 2010

Visió (preguntes) sobre l'economia americana 2010

Interessant informe publicat per Goldman Sachs, on fa 10 preguntes clau sobre l'economia americana i presenta la seva resposta. T'adjunto un resum (si t'interessa i el pots aconseguir, llegeix l'informe sencer, és força interessant):

1. Have house prices bottomed? Probably not yet, but we are quite uncertain.

2. Will banks become more willing to lend? Probably yes.

3. Will small-business activity pick up? It should, but so far we are not seeing it.

4. Will hiring revive? Yes, but we expect the rate of job creation to reach only about 100,000 per month by the second quarter, not enough to push the unemployment rate down in a meaningful way.

5. Does the savings rate have further to rise? Yes, we think so.

6. Will inflation fall further? Very likely yes.

7. Does the dollar pose an inflation risk? Only to a very limited degree.

8. Will Congress pass more fiscal stimulus? Yes.

9. How will the Fed “sequence the exit”? In 2010, the main form of “exit” is likely to be an end to asset purchases. … We expect neither a hike in the funds rate nor outright sales of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet in 2010 (or for that matter in 2011).

10. Will the end to the [Fed's] asset purchases tighten financial conditions? Possibly, although the degree is highly uncertain.

Estaria bé respondre a aquestes (i altres preguntes) sobre les economies espanyola i catalana (per prudència jo no ho faré; et remeto a Edward Hugh i a la seva visió sobre l'economia espanyola). Una conclusió ràpida és que si aquestes són les perspectives de l'economia americana, i aquí estem pitjor, ergo...